The Buffalo Bills are set to face the Miami Dolphins on Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. The Bills, holding a 6-2 record, are listed as 10-point favorites over the Dolphins, who have a 2-7 record. The game is scheduled for a 1 pm kickoff and will be broadcast on CBS.
Buffalo has maintained a strong performance against Miami in recent years, with seven consecutive wins over the Dolphins and an 11-1 record in Miami since 2020. Quarterback Josh Allen has been particularly effective against the Dolphins; according to ESPN’s Alaina Getzenberg, “In 15 games with Allen starting against Miami, the Bills have averaged 32.5 points per game, the fifth-highest team mark by a starting QB against a single opponent in the Super Bowl Era (since 1966). This is also a prime game for Allen to score another rushing touchdown (has had two in each of the past two games) as Miami has allowed four rushing touchdowns to QBs, second most in the league.”
Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has struggled against Buffalo, with a current record of 1-9 versus the Bills. He has thrown 11 interceptions this season, which ties him for most in the NFL alongside Geno Smith of the Raiders. Another interception would make him the first Dolphins quarterback since Chad Henne in 2010 to throw at least 12 picks within his first ten games of a season.
Several analysts predict another win for Buffalo. Jason Logan from Covers.com expects that “Buffalo’s ability to run the ball and control possession should wear down the Dolphins defense,” predicting a final score of Bills 23, Dolphins 14. Mike Florio and Chris Simms from Pro Football Talk anticipate scores of Bills 30-21 and Bills 34-24 respectively.
Pete Prisco from CBS Sports notes that although this could be an emotional letdown spot for Buffalo after their recent victory over Kansas City, he believes “the Bills have owned the Dolphins in recent years, especially Josh Allen. That won’t change here as the Bills avoid a letdown.” He predicts a decisive win: Bills 34, Dolphins 19.
Sporting News’ Bill Bender highlights turnover margins as key: “Buffalo has a plus-four turnover margin in two games since their bye week with Josh Allen at the controls. Miami has three or more turnovers in three of its last four games.” His pick is Bills 27, Dolphins 17.
Vinnie Iyer from Sporting News adds that James Cook is unlikely to be slowed down while De’Von Achane may not receive enough offensive support from Miami: “Josh Allen makes sure this rematch isn’t close.” His prediction is that Buffalo wins by covering the spread at 34-17.
On fantasy football considerations, ESPN’s Moody reports that “Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid has averaged 16.0 fantasy points in the four games this season in which he has seen at least six targets…He’s in an excellent spot against a defense that allows the fifth-most fantasy points per game to TEs.”
ESPN Research provides additional context: “The Bills are 1-4 ATS [against-the-spread] in their past five games as favorites.”
NFL.com’s Gennaro Filice cites Buffalo’s dominance under head coach Sean McDermott—16 wins out of their last eighteen meetings with Miami—and expects it to continue: “Sean McDermott’s Bills don’t lose this game…the franchise owns a 16-2 record against Miami since [he] arrived in 2017…”
Predictions from various outlets largely favor Buffalo; Bleacher Report’s panel lists five analysts picking Buffalo and two selecting Miami.
Miami head coach Mike McDaniel stated earlier this week about his quarterback situation: “We play the players that give us the best chance to win, and when that changes or if that changes or if somebody else gives us a better shot, then we adjust there,” according to Marcel Louis-Jacques of ESPN.
Gametime temperature is expected to be around 86 degrees Fahrenheit.
Overall consensus among national analysts indicates expectations for another strong showing by Buffalo against division rival Miami.
