The Buffalo Bills, holding a 4-0 record, are set to host the New England Patriots (2-2) at Highmark Stadium on Sunday night. The Bills enter the game as 8-point favorites according to oddsmakers, with kickoff scheduled for 8:20 p.m. on NBC’s Sunday Night Football.
Recent trends favor Buffalo in this AFC East matchup. The Bills have won their last 14 regular season home games and are 15-1 in divisional home contests since 2020. Since Josh Allen became the team’s starting quarterback, New England has managed six wins over Buffalo—the most by any division opponent during his tenure—but the Patriots have only gone 3-7 against the Bills since 2020. Buffalo is also 15-4 in primetime games since 2022 and has won its last three home meetings with New England.
A win for Josh Allen would make him the first reigning MVP to start a season 5-0 since Aaron Rodgers achieved that mark in 2015.
Several analysts provided their predictions for the outcome of Sunday’s contest:
Jason Logan of Covers.com said, “The Bills don’t show mercy when it comes to AFC East rivals, especially the Patriots. Buffalo is 15-1 SU in divisional home games since 2020. With a crazy crowd for Sunday Night Football, Bills Mafia will have plenty to celebrate after this one.” Logan predicts a final score of Buffalo 27, New England 18.
Mike Florio and Chris Simms from Pro Football Talk had differing views. Florio picked the Bills to win: “Bills 30, Patriots 23.” Simms favored an upset: “Patriots 27, Bills 24.”
Pete Prisco from CBS Sports believes Buffalo’s offense will be decisive: “The Patriots impressed in blowing out Carolina last week, but this is a big step up in class. Facing the Bills at their place on a Sunday night is tough sledding. The Bills have been outstanding on offense and that will continue in this one. Look for Josh Allen to play big as the Bills win it.” His pick: Bills 31, Patriots 20.
Vinnie Iyer of Sporting News noted improvements in New England’s offense but still expects Buffalo to prevail: “The Patriots’ offense is hitting its expected stride with Josh McDaniels revving up Drake Maye and weapons who are suddenly looking better overall… but in the end, Josh Allen and James Cook will be too much for a defense that isn’t as good on the road.” He forecasts a close game with Buffalo winning but not covering the spread: Bills win 34-27.
Bill Bender of Sporting News commented on both teams’ quarterbacks: “The Bills are back at home on Sunday Night Football against the rival Patriots… It’s a fun quarterback matchup. Josh Allen has a (109.7) passer rating, and Drake Maye (109.4) is not far behind.” Bender expects another competitive game with his pick being Bills 30, Patriots 22.
Frank Schwab from Yahoo Sports suggested that while Buffalo remains undefeated straight-up (SU), they are just .500 against betting spreads this year; he thinks New England can keep it close.
Anthony Dabbundo of The Ringer pointed out efficiency metrics favoring New England’s offense and highlighted injuries among key defenders Ed Oliver and Matt Milano as factors that could impact Buffalo’s defensive performance.
ESPN reported injury concerns for both teams heading into Sunday night—New England’s Milton Williams was added to their injury report due to an ankle issue while questions remain about how effective Buffalo’s rushing attack led by James Cook will be against New England’s strong run defense (“[Cook] has such a really good understanding of what we’re trying to do… And he’s really special right now,” said offensive coordinator Joe Brady).
Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen enters this game tied with Cam Newton for most career NFL games featuring both passing and rushing touchdowns at forty-five each (per ESPN Research).
Analysts made several bold or statistical predictions including increased carries for rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots) and favorable fantasy prospects for tight end Dalton Kincaid (Bills). Betting trends show that New England has covered four straight meetings between these teams as underdogs.
Maldonado predicts “Bills 38, Patriots 24,” Moody says “Bills 34, Patriots 24,” Walder expects “Bills 31, Patriots 27,” while ESPN’s FPI model gives Buffalo a roughly two-thirds chance of victory by an average margin just over seven points.
Bleacher Report contributors were split; some favored another cover by New England given recent betting trends—Buffalo is just one-for-four against-the-spread (ATS) at home versus division opponents—while others anticipate another solid double-digit victory by the hosts.
NFL.com noted that although New England arrives confident after defeating Carolina last week, maintaining pace with Josh Allen remains a significant challenge especially if key defensive starters return for Buffalo.
