The Buffalo Bills are favored by 5.5 points in their upcoming home game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Highmark Stadium, scheduled for Sunday at 1 p.m. on CBS.
Recent trends show the Bills have been strong at home, holding a 6-0 record against NFC teams since 2023 and remaining undefeated (3-0) against the Buccaneers in Buffalo. The home team has also won each of the last seven matchups between these two franchises. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay enters with a 4-1 road record this season but has lost two of its last three games.
Jason Logan from Covers.com noted, “This won’t be an easy game for the Bills, considering the injuries on both sides of the ball. I’m not sure they cover the spread, but the horrible November weather inside Highmark Stadium could be just enough.” His score prediction is Buffalo 24, Tampa Bay 21.
Mike Florio and Chris Simms of Pro Football Talk believe this could be one of the week’s most competitive games, especially after Buffalo’s poor performance in Miami. Florio predicts a Bills win at 27-24, while Simms expects a similar result with a 28-24 scoreline.
CBS Sports’ Pete Prisco emphasized the importance of this matchup for both teams: “This is a big game for both teams, but much bigger for the Bills. They looked awful in losing to Miami last week… Josh Allen didn’t play well last week. He will in this one. Bills take it.” Prisco picks Buffalo to win 30-23.
Sporting News’ Vinnie Iyer highlighted Tampa Bay’s run defense but thinks Buffalo will still come out ahead: “The Buccaneers can still stop the run well despite… breakdowns vs. the Patriots… Baker Mayfield will get more support from the running game and has speed skill around him to make this interesting…” He predicts a close contest with Buffalo winning 30-27 but failing to cover.
Bill Bender (Sporting News) pointed out key stats: Both teams are coming off losses; Buffalo is 3-1 straight up at home; Tampa Bay leads with a plus-8 turnover margin; and James Cook’s performance often determines Buffalo’s success—when he rushes for over 100 yards, they are unbeaten this season.
ESPN reports that Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles is aware of Buffalo’s offensive threats: “[Cook’s] dangerous,” Bowles said about James Cook III. “He’s very dangerous. He can do a lot of things running and catching the football. if you’re a half-step late, he’s going to take it to the house.” On defense, ESPN’s Alaina Getzenberg notes rookie T.J. Sanders is returning from injury as Buffalo looks to improve after allowing Miami nearly 200 rushing yards last week: “We didn’t get the guy on the ground in situations we needed to… we’ve got to answer that why.”
Research from ESPN indicates quarterback Josh Allen has had exactly two turnovers in all three losses but only one turnover combined across six wins this season.
Other predictions include Maldonado (Bills 27-20), Moody (Bills 27-24), Walder (Bills 27-17), and an FPI forecast giving Buffalo a roughly 61% chance to win by an average margin of four points.
NFL.com analyst Ali attributes his pick for Buffalo largely to their home-field advantage: “Home-field advantage can often be a bit overstated; after all, home teams have won at just a 54.7% clip this season… But… they’ve won an NFL-best 83% of their regular-season home games since… [2020], and have been particularly potent when… November…”
Bleacher Report contributors are split on their picks but generally expect a close outcome given recent inconsistencies by both teams and potential weather challenges typical for mid-November games in Buffalo.
Overall, analysts predict a competitive game with most favoring Buffalo to secure another home victory against Tampa Bay.
